Flamengo vs Gremio - Direct Win Prediction Today

Brazil: Serie A

Flamengo

Gremio

Novembre 4, 2026 at 23:30 · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Upcoming

Predicted Outcome Over 1.5 Goals

Odds 1.11

Result

Match Preview

Flamengo host Gremio in the Serie A (Regular Season - 34) on mercoledì 4 Novembre at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are 1st with 73 points from 33 games, while Gremio are 15th with 37 points from 33. Flamengo have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 league games. Gremio have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 league games. At home this season Flamengo score 2.0 and concede 0.8 goals per game; away from home Gremio score 0.6 and concede 1.4. Flamengo have 10 players listed as out or doubtful, and Gremio have 14 players listed as out or doubtful. In their last 6 meetings Flamengo won 3, Gremio won 2 and 1 ended level. Our model makes Over 1.5 Goals the pick at 80% (odds 1.11).

Competition: Brazil: Serie A — Regular Season - 34
Kickoff: mercoledì 4 Novembre 2026, 23:30
Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: P. Zanovelli

Team news

Flamengo

Danilo — Out (Jaw injury)
S. Niguez — Out (Muscle Injury)
G. Plata — Out (Yellow Cards)
A. Valencia — Out (Eye injury)
Lucas Paqueta — Doubtful (Injury)
Danilo — Out (Jaw injury)
S. Niguez — Out (Muscle Injury)
G. Plata — Out (Yellow Cards)
A. Valencia — Out (Eye injury)
Lucas Paqueta — Doubtful (Injury)

Gremio

Carlos Vinicius — Out (Yellow Cards)
Danilo Barbosa — Out (Injury)
Diego Caito — Out (Muscle Injury)
J. Nardoni — Out (Inactive)
C. Pavon — Out (Muscle Injury)
Weverton — Out (Yellow Cards)
J. Cabral — Doubtful (Muscle Injury)
Carlos Vinicius — Out (Yellow Cards)
Danilo Barbosa — Out (Injury)
Diego Caito — Out (Muscle Injury)
J. Nardoni — Out (Inactive)
C. Pavon — Out (Muscle Injury)
Weverton — Out (Yellow Cards)
J. Cabral — Doubtful (Muscle Injury)

League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	+40	73	WWWWD
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	+34	70	DWWWW
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	+6	57	WWWLW
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	WLLLW
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	LDLWD
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	+6	53	WDLWL
7	Atletico-MG	33	14	8	11	+5	50	LLWWD
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	+2	47	DDWLD
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	+4	44	WLDWD
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	+0	43	LDWWL
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	-10	42	WLLDL
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	-8	39	LLWDL
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	10	8	14	-9	38	LWLDW
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	LDDLW
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	-7	37	WWLDD
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	-10	37	LDWLD
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	-6	36	WLDLL
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	-5	35	LWLDW
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	-15	29	WLDDD
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	-34	21	LWLLL

Season stats

	Flamengo		Gremio
	Home	All	Away	All
Played	16	33	16	33
Won	12	22	1	9
Drawn	3	7	5	10
Lost	1	4	10	14
Goals scored	32	68	10	37
Goals conceded	12	28	23	44
Goals scored per game	2.0	2.1	0.6	1.1
Goals conceded per game	0.8	0.8	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets	8	14	3	8
Failed to score	1	2	7	10
Biggest win	3-0		0-1

Top scorers

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists	Apps
1	K. Viveros	Atletico Paranaense	21	3	31
2	Pedro	Flamengo	18	6	33
3	Gabriel Barbosa	Santos	15	3	25
4	Kaio Jorge	Cruzeiro	12	2	26
5	Samuel Lino	Flamengo	11	9	32
6	Carlos Vinícius	Gremio	11	1	32
7	Luciano Juba	Bahia	11	1	29
8	Danilo Santos	Botafogo	10	2	25
9	Rene	Vitoria	10	1	25
10	J. Calleri	Sao Paulo	10	2	27

Highlighted: players from the two teams.

Odds

Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — 1.11

Home Win (1)1.17

Draw (X)7.50

Away Win (2)14.00

Home or Draw (1X)1.04

Away or Draw (X2)4.93

Over 1.5 Goals1.11

Under 3.5 Goals1.80

Over 2.5 Goals1.36

Under 2.5 Goals2.95

Both Teams to Score1.96

Both Teams Not to Score1.75

Middle value across bookmakers, from API-Football. Odds change; check with your bookmaker.

Match Analysis

Model pick: Over 1.5 Goals — 80% probability (High).

Home Win (1)77%
Draw (X)16%
Away Win (2)7%
Home or Draw (1X)93%
Away or Draw (X2)23%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Under 3.5 Goals65%
Over 2.5 Goals57%
Under 2.5 Goals43%
Both Teams to Score41%
Both Teams Not to Score59%

Expected goals: Flamengo 2,39 – 0,60 Gremio. Probabilities come from Dixon-Coles team strengths and Elo ratings fitted on past results, recorded 3 Nov 00:09 before kickoff; they are estimates, not guarantees.

Form (last 5)

Flamengo

W 4–1 @ Vasco DA Gama 30 Ott
W 3–2 vs Atletico-MG 27 Ott
W 3–0 @ Bahia 18 Ott
W 1–0 vs Fluminense 11 Ott
D 2–2 @ Santos 8 Ott

Gremio

W 2–0 vs Atletico Paranaense 30 Ott
W 1–0 @ Coritiba 26 Ott
L 2–4 vs Cruzeiro 18 Ott
D 1–1 vs Internacional 11 Ott
D 1–1 @ Remo 7 Ott

Team comparison

FlamengoGremio

15League position

2.21

1.12Points per game

2.10

1.10Goals scored per game

0.80

1.30Goals conceded per game

42%

24%Clean sheets %

30%Failed to score %

8Form points (last 5)

The longer bar is the better side for that measure.

Head-to-head

10 Mag 2026 · Serie A Gremio 0–1 Flamengo
31 Ago 2025 · Serie A Flamengo 1–1 Gremio
13 Apr 2025 · Serie A Gremio 0–2 Flamengo
22 Set 2024 · Serie A Gremio 3–2 Flamengo
14 Giu 2024 · Serie A Flamengo 2–1 Gremio
26 Ott 2023 · Serie A Gremio 3–2 Flamengo

Data from API-Football, updated 3 Nov 2026, 00:09. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.